Gold at $2500 per ounce looks more likely than ever
Dan Burrow wrote a very simple and concise article laying out the case for a doubling of the price of gold from is current price that is hovering around $1,220.00 per ounce. Focusing on the driving factors like money supply growth and inflation expectations are based in solid logic for this move. Geo-political risk is another factor that was not mentioned.
With the tensions in Korean, Israel and Europe, those situations drive fear higher. When fear and uncertainty rises, people seek safer havens for their wealth and gold has been the de-facto standard for thousands of years for just that. Another point that has not been getting as much press but is still very relevant is declining mine productions around the world. Most of the large deposits are giving diminishing returns and are require you to dig deeper and deeper into the earth. Bottom-line is that it is a safe bet that gold will drive higher from here.
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John Paulson: Gold’s Bull Run Is Just Beginning
Mr. Paulson is not just talk but he is putting his and investors money where their proverbial mouth is. These last couple days, gold has tried to sell off just to see it come back strong and eek out a small gain each day. Even silver jumped over $1.00 in the same period. The key is too see if the Dow Jones can make news highs, if it does not then we could be seeing a top and then a decline. At this point it looks like the path is only higher for gold.
Seeking Alpha - John Paulson, lionized by many investors for his winning bet on the fall of the housing and financial markets, is now getting aboard the gold wagon.
The hedge fund manager told his investors that even at $1,150 an ounce, the bull run on gold is just beginning, according to the Wall Street Journal.
His firm, Paulson & Co., plans to launch a fund January 1st dedicated to gold mining shares and other bullion related investments, the newspaper reported.
Mr. Paulson, who is estimated to be worth about $6 billion. His bet against real estate and banks between 2007 and 2009 reportedly netted his hedge fund about $20 billion.
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ConocoPhilips stated “No plans to build new U.S. oil refinery”
With the environmental hurdles in the U.S. to open any sort of industrial plant, it is no surprise that this decision even if it has been made, will be publicly “no” to help manage expectations. Another line of thinking is with the U.S. economy is shambles, demand for refined gas and diesel, will be reduced for the time being and that would mean there is adequate refining capacity in place to meet any demand needed.
News (Reuters):
ConocoPhillips Co said on Monday it was not building a new U.S. refinery despite a statement earlier from Russian partner LUKOIL on a joint investment. ”ConocoPhillips has no plans to build a new U.S. refinery,” said Janet Grothe, a spokeswoman for the company.
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Oil prices jumps 4.8% on supply concerns
Well here we go again, Oil prices are on their way up on more violence in Nigeria and fire at Sunoco (U.S. NE Refinery). On NPR this morning, they reported that an estimate came out that gas prices would rise 15% in 2010 alone.
With the economy still in recession or depression, depending on who you ask. Many projects where pulled offline as the oil prices dropped because they are operating at a loss at those low prices. It takes time to get those project back online so the time between getting them running and getting that product to the refiner. That can be a formula for getting increases on prices as there is more demand on the supply side of this energy equation.
News (CNN Money):
Oil prices rose almost 5% Monday after a fire at a major American refinery and violence in Nigeria renewed supply concerns going into the summer driving season.
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Gold mining stocks attractive in turbulent times
No doubt, in times of currency devaluation, gold asserts itself as a store of wealth and a secondary reserve currency. I have followed this sector and it is following the 7 year bull trend that gold has shown. It looks like between now and the end of next week, gold will make another shot to top $1,000/oz. Time to protect your wealth before is gets debased through all our bailout and stimulus activity.
News:
The prospects for equity markets and numerous sector indexes have dimmed during the global recession, but gold and the companies that mine it have not lost their luster.
With gold prices nudging their all-time high and energy and other costs falling, mining company profit margins are widening, making their shares attractive, analysts said on Thursday.
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Exxon Mobil increases oil reserves by 1.5 billion barrels
If these numbers are correct, this is an impressive addition to reserves and this should be reflected positively on their stock. The only statement that was troubling, was that as the release reads, 1.1 billion barrels was from an oil sands project. What that tells me, is that the oil price will need to increase to make mining and processes oil sands a profitable activity.
News:
Exxon Mobil Corp said on Monday that it added 1.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in 2008, or 103 percent of its production for the year.
The largest U.S. oil company said that excluding the impact of asset sales, reserves additions replaced 110 percent of production in the year. It said these additions assume a long-term pricing basis, rather than single-day, year-end pricing.
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Merrill Lynch says wealthy individuals turning to gold bars for safety in uncertain times
Historically, gold is the safe haven investment from financial and political instability. Yes, it does not pay interest and that is why in our modern world, it seems to be shunned at every possible turn. The failing, is that people don’t seem to understand that it is a store of value (wealth) and that is its natural role and has been for at least 6,000 years or more.
Gold does not have any built in liability to anyone, it is rare and it takes work to get out of the ground. All of these make it so no matter what happens in the real world, no one will be able to tell someone that their gold is worthless and that is what makes it such a great store of wealth. With the type of fiscal policies government across the globe are running, it should be no surprise that people are looking for this type of safety.
News:
Merrill Lynch has revealed that some of its richest clients are so alarmed by the state of the financial system and signs of political instability around the world that they are now insisting on the purchase of gold bars, shunning derivatives or “paper” proxies.
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