Martin Armstrong featured on Bloomberg, ex-con getting on with his life

September 28, 2011 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Opinion 

To be honest I do not know much about Mr. Armstrong’s legal case.  If you want to know more about that, I would go pull his case file and read through it.   I have followed Martin’s writing from jail over the years and he has some very interesting ideas on economic theory, cycles and monetary truisms.  In this article, his 8.6 year cycle theory is discounted but I have found in independent research another book written in 1947 about cycles confirmed existence of a 19.2 year real estate cycle and because housing is such an important piece of all modern economies, maybe their is some correlation.  What I found interesting in this book is that in print (1947), this person called the peak of  our latest housing bubble (2006) over 50 years before it happened!

Anyways, Mr. Armstrong is out of jail and getting on with his life.    For what he was convicted of and it being Bloomberg, I have to give kudos to the Bloomberg editing staff but giving a pretty fair appraisal of Martin Armstrong.  If you are interested in reading his papers (written on a type-writer), here is the website (

Bloomberg (Zeke Faux and David Glovin) Martin Armstrong is a self-taught economist who is starting to build an Internet following from an almost-empty office across the street from Philadelphia City Hall. He’s also an unrepentant felon who spent 11 years in prison for cheating investors out of $700 million and hiding $15 million in assets from regulators.

In Armstrong’s view of the world, where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster, not as a criminal. He called Russia’s financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro “will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation,” leading to the system’s eventual collapse.

“The stuff I wrote about in ’97 is all coming true,” he said in an interview, the first since being released from jail in March. Armstrong says on a website on which he writes that his 1999 indictment stemmed from “wild and unfounded allegations related to his business in Japan.”

That’s not the view of prosecutors, who said he ran one of the largest Ponzi schemes in history, or of three federal judges, who called him a con artist or cheat. Economists dismiss his cycle theory.

“His 8.6-year cycle perhaps roughly fits the timing of the last three U.S. recessions but that’s about it,” said Karel Mertens, a professor of economics at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, who has studied business cycles. “It’s comparable to numerology.”

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